EUR/USD

Jul 31, 2026, 1:21 PM

The Fed's fractured 9-3 hold and a blow-out eurozone Q2 GDP of 0.4% (vs 0.2% forecast) are pulling EUR/USD in opposite directions — the pair's next decisive move will hinge on whether the ECB confirms a September rate hike or the Fed hawks regain the narrative.

Jul 31, 2026, 5:22 AM

The pair is trapped between a bullish ECB rate-hike story (Q2 Eurozone GDP beat at +0.4%, firmer German/Spanish CPI) and a resurgent safe-haven USD driven by US-Iran military escalation and a divided Fed that could still hike in September.

Jul 30, 2026, 8:24 PM

The Fed's divided vote (3 dissenters backing a hike) paradoxically crushed the dollar by eliminating certainty on a September hike, while the ECB's hawkish case just got stronger — this policy divergence shift is the most powerful near-term tailwind for EUR/USD.

Jul 30, 2026, 2:01 PM

The Fed's dovish-leaning hold (closest decision in years, September hike now in doubt) has given EUR/USD a short-term lift to 1.1473–1.1475, but the rate differential — Fed at 3.75% vs. ECB at 2.25% — still structurally favours the dollar on any risk-off re-escalation in the Middle East or a hot US GDP print today.

Jul 30, 2026, 5:22 AM

The Fed's 9-3 hold was dovish relative to pricing, sparking an EUR/USD rally, but with Chair Warsh emphasising above-target inflation and three hawkish dissenters, the case for sustained USD weakness remains unconvincing — the pair is trapped in a 1.1380–1.1550 no-man's-land.

Jul 29, 2026, 8:22 PM

Today's FOMC meeting (29 July) is the single most important near-term catalyst: with the Fed holding at 3.75% and US inflation running at 3.5% vs. eurozone 2.8%, any hawkish signal from Powell will re-energise USD bulls and cap EUR/USD below the 1.1500 psychological barrier.

Jul 29, 2026, 1:23 PM

Today's FOMC decision is the single biggest near-term catalyst: a hawkish hold or delayed cut signal from the Fed — compounded by today's sharp +6.1% oil surge reigniting inflation concerns — could push EUR/USD through key support at 1.1280 and open the path to 1.1080.

Jul 29, 2026, 5:38 AM

Today's FOMC decision (29 July) is the single most important catalyst — any hawkish hold or pushback on near-term cuts by Powell will reinforce the rate differential and push EUR/USD below the 1.1280 structural support, opening the door to 1.1080.

Jul 28, 2026, 8:23 PM

The FOMC decision on 29 July is the single biggest near-term catalyst — a hawkish hold or rate hike signal from the Fed would likely flush EUR/USD below the critical 1.1280 structural support and open a run toward 1.1080.

Jul 28, 2026, 1:24 PM

The FOMC decision on 29 July is the single most important near-term catalyst — a hawkish hold or signal of further hikes (Yardeni warns of three more) would accelerate the EUR/USD slide toward the key 1.1280 break level.

Jul 28, 2026, 5:21 AM

The ECB signaled a likely September rate hike, but this is already priced in; the real risk is that US-Iran geopolitical re-escalation reignites oil prices and dollar safe-haven demand, pushing EUR/USD through the key 1.1362 July low toward 1.1200.

Jul 27, 2026, 8:22 PM

The single most important event this week is the 29 July FOMC decision — any hawkish hold or rate hike signal from the Fed will confirm the bearish EUR/USD structure and likely break the pair below the critical 1.1280 support.

Jul 27, 2026, 1:21 PM

The 29 July Fed decision is the single most important catalyst this week — a hawkish hold or any signal of further rate hikes (Yardeni warns of three more) would strengthen the dollar and push EUR/USD through the critical 1.1280 support, opening a run toward 1.1080.

Jul 27, 2026, 5:24 AM

The FOMC decision on 29 July is the single most pivotal catalyst this week — a hold with hawkish guidance would likely crack the 1.1400 floor and open a direct path to 1.1280, while any dovish pivot signal could stage a sharp relief rally toward 1.1550.

Jul 24, 2026, 8:21 PM

The ECB's July hold with a September hike signal was a 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' catalyst — EUR/USD has now slipped to near its June 2026 one-year low of 1.1325, and Bank of America targets 1.12 by end-Q3.

Jul 24, 2026, 1:22 PM

The pair failed to hold above the 1.1480–1.1485 200-period SMA last week; until bulls reclaim that level, the corrective pullback toward 1.1300 remains the path of least resistance.

Jul 24, 2026, 5:21 AM

The ECB held rates at 2.40% yesterday (23 July) while signalling a possible September hike — but with the Fed anchored at 3.75% and Fed Chair Warsh declaring inflation still "too high," the 135bp rate differential keeps structural pressure on EUR/USD; today's Eurozone Flash PMI is the next make-or-break catalyst.

Jul 23, 2026, 8:36 PM

Today's ECB press conference confirmed a hold at 2.25% with a wait-and-see stance, removing the near-term Euro catalyst while the Fed holds at 3.75% — the interest rate differential keeps structural pressure on the EUR/USD downside.

Jul 23, 2026, 1:22 PM

The ECB rate hold today (widely priced in) removes the euro's last near-term catalyst, leaving the pair exposed to renewed USD strength driven by incoming US tariff escalation on 60+ trading partners effective August 1.

Jul 23, 2026, 5:23 AM

The pair has pulled back over 400 pips from the 2026 high of 1.1915 and is stalling below key moving average resistance, with the ECB's July hold decision and surging oil prices (up 1.5% today) capping any euro recovery rally.