EUR/USD

Key insight

1.1477 trades below key 1.15 round resistance — sustained close above flips bias bullish toward 1.1600. Failure here reopens 1.1320 50-day MA. Oil drop to $93.9 limits USD safe-haven bid, complicating the setup.

1.1477 holds below the 1.15 round number — pair stalled after multi-month USD weakness cycle; Fed-ECB policy divergence narrowing keeps direction ambiguous near-term.

Main risk

Fed hawkish hold vs ECB easing pivot

Fed holding rates elevated while ECB signals cuts compresses EUR rate advantage — threatens 1.1320 support on any USD reassertion.