EUR/USD

Key insight

1.1600 is the line in the sand: four consecutive sessions of rejection here cap near-term upside. Break above opens 1.1750; failure risks a pullback to 1.1400 200-day MA support.

1.1595 stalls below the 1.1600 round number — EUR unable to extend despite USD/JPY weakness, signalling indecision ahead of next week's key central bank events.

Main risk

Fed vs ECB policy divergence

Diverging rate paths — Fed holding elevated while ECB cuts — compress EUR/USD; sustained break below 1.1400 confirms the trend shift.