FX · Briefing

EUR/USD

Bearish Sep 25, 2026, 8:29 PM

Fell to 1.1359 on Jul 28 — lowest since Jul 28 — third straight weekly loss as hawkish Fed remarks and strong US PMI push dollar to 2-month highs; 20-day EMA at 1.1501 now firm resistance.

1.14

↘ -0.05% ·  24h · USD

Key insight

Trades below 20-day EMA (1.1501) for a third week running; Friday's bounce to 1.1400 looks corrective — any rally into 1.1420–1.1500 is a potential re-entry short while USD supported by hawkish Fed and rising oil.

Main risk

US-Iran Geopolitical Escalation

Rising oil above $92 fuels inflation fears; second Treasury buyback in two weeks failed to stem bond selloff, keeping USD bid and EUR/USD capped.

Price levels

Levels around the price

Current price highlighted.

Bull Target 2Aug swing high / key resistance +2.8 % 1.17

Bull Target 1Aug consolidation midpoint +1.9 % 1.16

Resistance 220-day EMA +1.0 % 1.15

Resistance 1Intraday Friday recovery high +0.4 % 1.14

Current 1.14

Support 1Thu low / near-term floor 0.0 % 1.14

Support 2Jul 28 cycle low -0.2 % 1.14

Hard StopBreak above 1.1550 invalidates bearish structure; prior Aug swing high & above 20-day EMA zone +1.5 % 1.16

Bear Target -1.6 % 1.12

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Scenarios

Bull and bear

Bull scenario Prob. low

EUR Reclaims 20-Day EMA on Dovish Pivot

Reclaim of 1.1501 EMA needed to shift structure; 1.1700 Aug high is the bull target.

Target 1.17

Triggers

—Fed speaker signals rate-hike pause explicitly
—Eurozone CPI surprise forces ECB hawkish revision
—EUR/USD closes above 20-day EMA at 1.1501

Bear scenario Prob. high

Dollar Extends — EUR Breaks Jul Low

Third weekly loss extends; 1.1360 break opens path to 1.1200 200-day MA.

Target 1.12

Triggers

—Fed official reaffirms rate-hike path at next speech
—US PCE or jobs data beats consensus strongly
—EUR/USD closes below 1.1360 Jul 28 cycle low

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Macro drivers

What is moving the price

Hawkish Fed / US Rate Expectations

bearish

Markets price ~100bp of further Fed tightening through 2027; USD holds 2-month highs, capping EUR upside.

Eurozone PMI & German Ifo Beat

bullish

German Ifo hit 3-year high in Sep; Eurozone private sector expanded fastest in 3.5 years — limits EUR downside.

Rising Oil / US-Iran Uncertainty

bearish

Oil at $92.3 stokes inflation fears; Iran diplomacy stalemate keeps energy premium bid and risk appetite suppressed.

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Key dates

What is coming next

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This briefing was generated automatically by AI and published on Sep 25, 2026, 8:29 PM. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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