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EUR/USD

Neutral

1.16 USD ▲ +0.09%

Analysis from Aug 12, 2026, 3:38 AM

1.1538 stalls at Aug swing high — US CPI at 1330 GMT decides break to 1.1620 or flush to 1.1420

Holds 1.1500 round support; US CPI today pivots next leg — Fed hike vs. hold binary

Main Risk

US CPI beat reignites Sep Fed hike

Firm CPI prints 8 Aug push Sep hike odds back; USD spikes, 1.1420 support tested fast

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Price Ladder

Hard Stop: 1.14 — Break of 1.1350 voids Aug recovery structure; 200-day MA cluster negated

Support 2: 1.14 — Aug 5 swing low

Support 1: 1.15 — Round number / intraday pivot

Resistance 1: 1.16 — Aug 12 intraday high

Resistance 2: 1.16 — July 2026 swing high

Bull Target 1: 1.17 — Fib 61.8% from 2026 high

Bull Target 2: 1.18 — 2025 multi-year high

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Scenarios

🐻 CPI Beat Crushes the Euro

Dollar repricing slams EUR to 1.1200 Fib support as rate differential widens

🐂 Soft CPI Cements Euro Rally

Weak CPI kills hike premium; EUR rallies to 1.1780 multi-year resistance

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Macro Drivers

US CPI Print — Aug 12 — Above-consensus CPI revives Sep Fed hike odds; dollar strengthens, EUR/USD retreats from 1.1560

ECB–Fed Rate Differential — ECB at 2.40% vs. Fed at 3.75%; narrowing gap underpins EUR demand on USD softness

Eurozone Sentix Sentiment — Fourth consecutive rise to +0.9 in Aug signals stabilisation; reduces ECB cut urgency

Weak US Payrolls (Aug 7) — Softer jobs data pushed out Fed hike bets last week, lifting EUR to current 1.15 handle

USD/JPY BOJ Intervention Risk — BOJ Sep hike signal triggered USD/JPY squeeze; cross-currency flows add EUR/USD volatility

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Key Dates & TradingBrief View

📅 US CPI (Jul) — today, Aug 12, 1330 GMT

📅 Fed Minutes release — Aug 20

📅 ECB August meeting accounts — Aug 21

📅 US Retail Sales — Aug 15

📅 Jackson Hole Symposium — late Aug

Neutral — Await CPI — Hold flat; buy break above 1.1620 or fade a spike below 1.1420 post-CPI with stop at 1.1350

CPI today is a genuine binary for the pair; current 1.1538 is no-man's-land between Aug swing high and 5 Aug low

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