EUR/USD

Aug 10, 2026, 8:26 PM

1.1500 holds as soft-floor post-NFP; break of 1.1570 resistance opens run at 1.1620 June high.

Aug 10, 2026, 1:41 PM

1.1570 June-16 swing high caps rally; break above opens 1.1680. Weak NFP limits USD recovery below 1.1480 support.

Aug 10, 2026, 3:38 AM

1.1551 stalls under 1.16 round number; weak US payrolls vs. ECB hold leaves pair range-locked between 1.1400–1.1600.

Aug 7, 2026, 8:43 PM

1.1600 cleared on soft NFP — next ceiling is 1.1680 (2026 swing high); hold above 1.1520 to stay bullish.

Aug 7, 2026, 1:30 PM

1.1600 cleared on weak NFP setup — hold above 1.1538 pivot targets 1.1680 weekly high next.

Aug 7, 2026, 5:30 AM

1.1555–1.1590 resistance band is the gate — break opens 1.1650; July NFP (today) is the binary trigger.

Aug 6, 2026, 8:27 PM

1.1538 pivot caps recovery — break needed to flip neutral; failure here risks retest of 1.1380 support

Aug 6, 2026, 2:11 PM

1.1550 capped by 100-day MA + Bollinger upper band; break above needed to target 1.1620 July high

Aug 6, 2026, 1:21 PM

The Fed's 9-3 split vote to hold rates — with three hawkish dissents — keeps the dollar on the defensive, but a strong July NFP on Friday could rapidly reprice rate expectations and push EUR/USD back below the 1.1503 support.

Aug 6, 2026, 5:23 AM

Friday's July US Nonfarm Payrolls print (after June's shock miss of just 57,000) is the single most important near-term catalyst — a second consecutive weak print would break dollar support and send EUR/USD through 1.1590 toward 1.1700+.

Aug 5, 2026, 8:22 PM

The Fed's 9-3 hold at 3.50–3.75% with hawkish dissents creates a policy uncertainty premium on the dollar, while a potential ECB rate hike in September gives the euro a structural lift — the pair is at its highest level since mid-June 2026.

Aug 5, 2026, 1:28 PM

The Fed's unusually divided 9-3 hold (three hawks dissenting for a hike) caps near-term USD upside, while the ECB's own hawkish pivot — its first hike since 2023 in June — narrows the traditional rate-differential advantage for the dollar, keeping EUR/USD bid above 1.15.

Aug 5, 2026, 5:23 AM

The Fed's rare 9-3 split vote at 3.50–3.75% and Eurozone Q2 GDP doubling forecasts at 0.4% have converged to keep EUR/USD bid near multi-month highs, with Friday's US payrolls (July) the single biggest near-term binary risk.

Aug 4, 2026, 8:23 PM

The most important dynamic right now is that the ECB is being re-priced back toward a September hike (HICP at 2.9% YoY) while the Fed sits on hold at 3.50–3.75% with a deeply divided 9-3 vote — rate-differential narrowing is the primary EUR/USD tailwind.

Aug 4, 2026, 1:21 PM

The ECB is now fully priced for two more hikes to 2.75% by early 2027, closing the rate-differential gap with the Fed — this is the structural shift that could sustain EUR/USD above 1.15 through Q3 2026.

Aug 4, 2026, 5:23 AM

The EUR is caught between a hawkish ECB repricing (September hike ~80% priced in) and a still-wide 175bp US-EU rate differential that structurally favours the dollar — a clean directional break requires either a Fed pivot or an ECB surprise hike.

Aug 3, 2026, 8:25 PM

The most important dynamic right now is that EUR/USD bears are structurally caught short (COT data, Aug 2) at a time when the ECB is tightening and the pair holds above 1.1500 — a short-squeeze risk to 1.1650+ remains live if US data disappoints this week.

Aug 3, 2026, 1:29 PM

With the ECB September hike still ~85% priced in but the Fed holding at unchanged with three dissents for a hike, the policy convergence narrative is keeping EUR/USD anchored between 1.1400 and 1.1650 — the geopolitical de-escalation via US-Iran Strait of Hormuz talks is the wildcard that shifts the balance.

Aug 3, 2026, 5:23 AM

With the ECB hiking for the first time since 2023 and the Fed holding but with three dissents for a hike, both central banks are now leaning hawkish simultaneously — making the policy-divergence trade dead and trapping EUR/USD in a 1.13–1.21 range.

Jul 31, 2026, 8:23 PM

The ECB-Fed policy convergence trade is the dominant theme: markets now fully price two more ECB hikes to 2.75% by early 2027, narrowing the rate differential that has long weighed on EUR, but the Fed's 65% September hike probability is the critical counterweight that keeps EUR bulls in check.