EUR/USD

Neutral

Archived analysis from Sep 17, 2026, 3:38 AM

Key insight

1.1500 round number acting as pivot — break above 1.1534 June swing high opens 1.1600; failure below 1.1440 200-day MA targets 1.1350 prior consolidation zone.

Holds 1.1500 round number but stalls below 1.1534 (June 2025 swing high); Fed-ECB policy divergence narrowing keeps pair range-bound near multi-month highs.

Main risk

Fed policy surprise at Sept 2026 FOMC

Hawkish Fed hold or delayed cut path strengthens USD, pushes EURUSD below 1.1440 200-day MA and invalidates the bull thesis.

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