EUR/USD

Bearish

Archived analysis from Sep 18, 2026, 8:33 PM

Key insight

1.1487 holds below 20-day EMA (1.1564) after FOMC hike — close above 1.1564 needed to neutralise near-term bear pressure; failure re-targets 1.1400.

Fed hiked to 3.75–4.00% on Wed and signalled another raise; pair sits below 20-day EMA at 1.1564, fresh 6-week low of 1.1456 just printed.

Main risk

FOMC second hike signal — Nov/Dec 2026

Fed dot plot median at 4.1% end-2026 with PCE at 3.7%; second hike would drive USD higher and pull EUR/USD toward 1.1300.

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