EUR/USD

Key insight

1.1537 sits between 1.1500 floor and 1.1600 ceiling — a break of either resolves the range. Gold +1.4% pressures USD mildly bullish for EUR; oil -2.1% cuts inflation risk and reduces Fed pressure to stay tight.

Holds 1.1500 round support but fades from 1.1600 resistance; gold surge to 4,355 and oil drop to 99.5 send mixed USD signals, keeping EUR/USD range-bound near 1.1537.

Main risk

Fed higher-for-longer pivot signal

Surprise hawkish Fed guidance would drive DXY above 102, pushing EUR/USD through 1.1500 support and targeting 1.1350 Fib level.