EUR/USD

Key insight

The Fed's 9-3 hold at 3.50–3.75% with hawkish dissents creates a policy uncertainty premium on the dollar, while a potential ECB rate hike in September gives the euro a structural lift — the pair is at its highest level since mid-June 2026.

EUR/USD has broken above the key 1.1555–1.1590 resistance band and is trading at 1.1600, supported by a divided Fed hold, a Eurozone growth beat, and easing Strait of Hormuz geopolitical risk.

Main risk

US July NFP Payrolls Print (7 August 2026)

June payrolls shocked at just 57,000; a rebound beat on 7 August would sharply revive USD bid and could push EUR/USD back below the 1.1555 resistance-turned-support zone.