EUR/USD

Key insight

Friday's July US Nonfarm Payrolls print (after June's shock miss of just 57,000) is the single most important near-term catalyst — a second consecutive weak print would break dollar support and send EUR/USD through 1.1590 toward 1.1700+.

EUR/USD is consolidating just below the June 16 high near 1.1555–1.1590 resistance band, caught between a hawkishly split Fed hold at 3.50–3.75% and a potentially more aggressive ECB ahead of September, leaving the pair directionless ahead of Friday's pivotal US NFP print.

Main risk

July US Nonfarm Payrolls (7 August 2026)

June payrolls printed just 57,000 — a second consecutive miss could force Fed rate-cut repricing and trigger a sharp EUR/USD breakout above the 1.1590 resistance ceiling.