EUR/USD

Key insight

The ECB is now fully priced for two more hikes to 2.75% by early 2027, closing the rate-differential gap with the Fed — this is the structural shift that could sustain EUR/USD above 1.15 through Q3 2026.

EUR/USD is caught in a tight range between the 1.1503 intraday support and the 1.1555–1.1590 resistance band, as a split Fed hold (9-3 vote) and a Eurozone Q2 GDP beat offset a still-wide US–EU rate differential of 175 bps.

Main risk

US Nonfarm Payrolls – 7 August 2026

After June payrolls shocked at just 57,000, a strong July print would reignite Fed hike expectations and send EUR/USD back toward the 1.1350 support cluster, invalidating the current consolidation.