EUR/USD
BullishArchived analysis from Aug 5, 2026, 5:23 AM
Key insight
The Fed's rare 9-3 split vote at 3.50–3.75% and Eurozone Q2 GDP doubling forecasts at 0.4% have converged to keep EUR/USD bid near multi-month highs, with Friday's US payrolls (July) the single biggest near-term binary risk.
EUR/USD is consolidating just above the key 1.1503 support after breaking above the 1.1480 double-bottom neckline, backed by a Eurozone GDP beat and rising ECB hike expectations for September.
Main risk
US July Payrolls – August 7 NFP Print
June payrolls came in at a deeply weak 57,000; a July rebound above 150,000 could reignite USD strength and force EUR/USD below the 1.1480 neckline support, invalidating the current double-bottom breakout.
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