EUR/USD

Key insight

The Fed's 9-3 split vote to hold rates — with three hawkish dissents — keeps the dollar on the defensive, but a strong July NFP on Friday could rapidly reprice rate expectations and push EUR/USD back below the 1.1503 support.

EUR/USD is consolidating just below the key 1.1555–1.1590 resistance band, caught between a hawkishly-divided Fed hold at 3.50–3.75% and a Eurozone growth beat, with Friday's July US NFP print the decisive near-term catalyst.

Main risk

July US Non-Farm Payrolls (7 August 2026)

June NFP came in at a weak 57,000; a July rebound above 150,000 would revive Fed hike pricing, likely breaking EUR/USD back below 1.1503 and challenging the 1.1400 round-number support.