EUR/USD

Neutral

Archived analysis from Aug 10, 2026, 3:38 AM

Key insight

1.1551 stalls under 1.16 round number; weak US payrolls vs. ECB hold leaves pair range-locked between 1.1400–1.1600.

Bounced to 1.1551 but capped below 1.16 round-number resistance; both Fed and ECB hawkish, no divergence signal.

Main risk

Strait of Hormuz energy shock

Unresolved Hormuz deal keeps oil supply risk elevated; renewed spike pressures EUR via higher eurozone inflation.

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