EUR/USD
BullishArchived analysis from Aug 4, 2026, 8:23 PM
Key insight
The most important dynamic right now is that the ECB is being re-priced back toward a September hike (HICP at 2.9% YoY) while the Fed sits on hold at 3.50–3.75% with a deeply divided 9-3 vote — rate-differential narrowing is the primary EUR/USD tailwind.
EUR/USD is holding above the key 1.1480 double-bottom neckline breakout after a Eurozone GDP beat (Q2 +0.4%) and hawkish ECB re-pricing have shifted the near-term bias in favour of the euro.
Main risk
US Nonfarm Payrolls – 7 August 2026
A strong July payrolls print (vs. June's dismal 57K) could reignite Fed hike expectations and sharply reverse EUR/USD below the 1.1480 neckline support, invalidating the bullish breakout thesis.
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