EUR/USD
BullishArchived analysis from Aug 5, 2026, 1:28 PM
Key insight
The Fed's unusually divided 9-3 hold (three hawks dissenting for a hike) caps near-term USD upside, while the ECB's own hawkish pivot — its first hike since 2023 in June — narrows the traditional rate-differential advantage for the dollar, keeping EUR/USD bid above 1.15.
EUR/USD is consolidating just above the 1.1503 intraday support after breaking to its highest level since June 16, driven by the Eurozone's Q2 GDP beat (+0.4%, twice consensus) and easing Iran geopolitical risk following Trump's diplomatic pivot.
Main risk
US Nonfarm Payrolls — 7 August 2026
A strong July payrolls print (vs June's dismal +57K) would revive Fed hike pricing and trigger a sharp USD rally, threatening the 1.1503 support and opening a move back toward the 1.1380 50-day MA.
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