Analysis archive
Bitcoin
Recommendation history — all past assessments at a glance. View current analysis →
Aug 7, 2026, 5:28 AM
64,000 is the fulcrum: three consecutive days straddling it with no clean break signals indecision ahead of jobs data
Aug 6, 2026, 8:25 PM
64,500 cap intact — break above 65,800 (July swing high) needed to confirm next leg; $63K is the line in sand.
Aug 6, 2026, 2:09 PM
$64k defended for multiple sessions — break above 66,500 (July swing high) needed to confirm trend resumption
Aug 6, 2026, 1:20 PM
BlackRock's IBIT absorbed over $170M of $211M in total daily spot ETF inflows, forming a strong demand floor near $63,000, but BTC must reclaim $67,500 to signal a credible trend resumption toward the 2026 highs.
Aug 6, 2026, 5:23 AM
The battle between institutional ETF inflows ($211M/day led by BlackRock IBIT) and the stubborn 50-day EMA resistance at $64,587 will determine whether BTC breaks higher or rolls back to the $62,000 support zone.
Aug 5, 2026, 8:21 PM
BTC has pushed above the 50-day EMA ($64,587) on the IG feed intraday, but the medium-term trend stays corrective with the 100-day EMA at $67,025 and 200-day EMA at $72,569 acting as major overhead supply — a confirmed break above $65,000 is needed to shift the balance of power to bulls.
Aug 5, 2026, 1:27 PM
Bitcoin is diverging from record-high global equities — a classically bearish signal — while the $120M Coldcard hardware wallet hack rattles self-custody confidence and the BIP-110 governance dispute threatens near-term protocol certainty.
Aug 5, 2026, 5:22 AM
Bitcoin is trapped beneath the key $65,000–$65,500 resistance band that must be reclaimed with a sustained close to reverse the medium-term downtrend; failure here risks a relapse toward the $60K–$61K support cluster.
Aug 4, 2026, 8:22 PM
Bitcoin is trading roughly $1,500 above yesterday's Fortune-reported $62,706 price — a fast-moving intraday recovery — but the $65,000 level is the make-or-break inflection point: a clean break there opens the door to $70,000, while failure keeps BTC rangebound between $60K–$65K.
Aug 4, 2026, 1:21 PM
BTC absorbed a brutal cocktail of a hawkish Fed hold, a $70M Coldcard wallet hack, and $265M in single-session ETF outflows — yet held $63,000; that resilience is the bull's only card right now.
Aug 4, 2026, 5:22 AM
The Fed's 3-dissent hawkish hold has materially repriced September tightening odds above 60%, removing the dovish tailwind that powered BTC's July rally and leaving the $60,000 put as the market's most popular hedge going into August.
Aug 3, 2026, 8:24 PM
Bitcoin absorbed a historic hardware wallet hack ($70M Coldcard exploit), a hawkish Fed split (9-3 hold), and a record ETF outflow day ($265M on July 31) — the fact it held above $63,000 shows latent demand, but reclaiming $65,000 is the minimum required to shift momentum bullish.
Aug 3, 2026, 1:28 PM
A hawkish Fed hold (3 dissenting votes for a hike) has pushed September rate-hike odds above 60%, draining risk appetite from crypto at exactly the moment BTC needs institutional ETF inflows to defend the $62,000–$63,000 zone.
Aug 3, 2026, 5:22 AM
Bitcoin must hold the $61,400 structural support and reclaim $64,567 channel resistance to avoid an extension toward the $59,070 zone — failure here turns the July rally into a dead-cat bounce.
Aug 2, 2026, 7:01 PM
Bitcoin absorbed a barrage of bearish catalysts this week — a hawkish Fed split, a $70M hardware wallet hack, and ETF outflows — yet closed the week down only ~2%, suggesting forced selling is largely exhausted; the next directional leg hinges on whether the $65,000–$70,000 resistance zone can be reclaimed.
Aug 2, 2026, 7:03 AM
Bitcoin enters August — historically its worst-performing month — capped below the 50-day EMA at $64,891 and the $65,000–$70,000 resistance zone, with the bull thesis hinging entirely on a Fed pivot signal or a resumption of spot ETF inflows that has yet to materialize.
Aug 1, 2026, 7:01 PM
Strategy's announcement that it will no longer allocate 100% of new capital raises to Bitcoin removes a key institutional bid that had been a structural support for BTC, arriving exactly as the asset enters August — its worst seasonal month with a median return of -7.5%.
Aug 1, 2026, 7:02 AM
Bitcoin has reclaimed July green for the third consecutive year but now faces its most hostile seasonal window: August has posted a median loss of ~7.5–8% and the $60,965 neckline level is the key line in the sand — a close below it risks an accelerated slide toward the mid-$40,000s.
Jul 31, 2026, 8:23 PM
With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, energy costs elevated, and markets pricing in a potential Fed rate hike later in 2026, BTC is caught between geopolitical risk-off pressure and a meaningful technical ceiling at the 50-month EMA ~$65,600 — the bull case only re-opens on a confirmed close above that level.
Jul 31, 2026, 1:20 PM
The most important thing to know right now is that the Fed's rate decision — potentially its first hike in three years — has just passed, yet BTC is still -1.6% on the day, suggesting the relief rally has faded and the $65,600 50-month EMA remains an unbroken ceiling.
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