Bitcoin

Key insight

$80,000 is the line in the sand: reclaim it on volume and the 2026 high at $89,000 opens up; fail and the 200-day MA at $76,500 becomes a retest target within days.

77,980 holds above 200-day MA near 76,500 but stalls below key $80,000 round number — neither bulls nor bears have seized control heading into the weekend.

Main risk

USD/JPY Carry Unwind at 157.7

USD/JPY +1.1% today at 157.7 signals renewed carry demand; a sharp reversal would hit risk assets including BTC hard and fast.