Bitcoin

Key insight

Rejected at 200-day MA (~88,500) for third consecutive session; break below 85,000 round number opens path to Aug swing low at 81,400. Fed hike risk is the swing factor.

86,234 sits 33% below the Oct-2025 ATH of 128,198 with Fed rate hike risk re-emerging; 200-day MA near 88,500 acting as overhead resistance.

Main risk

Fed Sept Rate Hike — 66% CME probability

66% CME FedWatch probability of 25bp hike this month; higher rates compress BTC valuation; confirmation triggers flush to 81,400.