Bitcoin

Key insight

$86,121 stalls at the 50-day MA — a daily close below $84,500 (prior consolidation base) opens a retest of $80,000 round-number support. No new catalyst in sight while Fed stays hawkish.

Rejects $88K–$90K resistance zone; -1% today after a $9K rally from Sep lows. Fed rate-hike risk (66% CME probability) caps upside, keeping BTC ~33% below its Oct 2025 ATH of $128,198.

Main risk

Fed Rate-Hike Cycle Extension

66% CME probability of 25 bps hike at next FOMC. Higher rates compress crypto multiples; BTC has fallen ~33% from $128,198 ATH since the cycle began.