Bitcoin

Key insight

77,375 sits in a compression zone between 75,000 round-number support and 80,000 resistance. Break either side with volume determines the next 10%+ leg. S&P 500 flat at 7,641 and USD/JPY rising to 156.9 cap risk appetite near-term.

77,375 holds above the 200-day MA near 72,000 but stalls well below the 2025 cycle high at 89,000 — upside momentum is modest and volume conviction is absent.

Main risk

USD/JPY Carry Unwind Risk

USD/JPY at 156.9 (+0.6%) signals yen weakness; a sharp reversal could trigger risk-asset deleveraging, pressuring BTC below 75,000 support.