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Crypto · Briefing

Bitcoin

Bearish Nov 10, 2026, 9:26 PM

Falls to 3-month low at $73,824 — hot CPI print revives Fed hike talk, spot ETF AUM shed $8.5B in a month, and MARA dumped 17,477 BTC to repay loans.

73,795.50
↘ -1.85% · 24h · USD

Key insight

$73,000 Aug swing low now acting as last line of defence; a daily close below flips structure bearish toward $68,500 Fib cluster. All daily MAs overhead, lower Bollinger Band at $73,722.

Main risk

Fed Hike Reprisk — Waller Half-Point Warning

Hotter-than-expected Oct CPI keeps Fed Gov. Waller's 50 bps threat live; December FOMC decision now binary for risk assets.

Price levels

Levels around the price

Current price highlighted.

Bull Target 2Nov 2025 ATH zone / Texas reserve buy +17.9 % 87,000.00
Bull Target 1Daily Bollinger upper band +13.4 % 83,700.00
Resistance 2Daily Bollinger midpoint +6.6 % 78,700.00
Resistance 150-day MA +3.7 % 76,500.00
Current 73,795.50
Support 1Aug 2026 swing low / round number -1.1 % 73,000.00
Support 2July consolidation base -3.1 % 71,500.00
Hard StopBreak of Aug 2026 structural low / Fib 61.8% retracement from Jan low invalidates recovery thesis -7.9 % 68,000.00
Bear Target -18.7 % 60,000.00
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Scenarios

Bull and bear

Bull scenario Prob. low

CPI Fade Sparks Short Squeeze to $83K

Reclaim $76,500 50-day MA needed first; macro headwinds make this a low-conviction bounce.

Target 83,700.00

Triggers

  • —Nov CPI prints below 3.0%, extinguishing hike narrative
  • —Spot ETF weekly inflow flips positive above $500M
  • —CLARITY Act fast-tracked after bipartisan compromise
Bear scenario Prob. high

CPI Shock Opens $68K Trapdoor

$73K breaks → Fib 61.8% at $68K exposed; daily MAs all overhead, no bid catalyst.

Target 68,000.00

Triggers

  • —Close below $73,000 Aug swing low on volume
  • —December FOMC projects additional 50 bps hike
  • —Spot ETF weekly outflow exceeds $2B
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Macro drivers

What is moving the price

US CPI Oct 2026 — Hotter Print

bearish

Disappointed expectations today, dragging BTC ~1% lower intraday and reviving Fed rate-hike narrative.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows

bearish

$1.3B weekly outflow (worst since June); AUM fell from $108.8B to $100.3B in one month.

MARA $1.1B BTC Liquidation

bearish

17,477 coins released from collateral and partially sold Nov 9 — direct sell-side pressure near support.

US Midterms — Democrat Sweep

bearish

CLARITY Act faces legislative delay; crypto-friendly bills stall in new Congress configuration.

Bitcoin Dominance at 60%

neutral

Defensive capital rotation into BTC from alts; limits downside but signals broad crypto risk-off.

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Key dates

What is coming next

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This briefing was generated automatically by AI and published on Nov 10, 2026, 9:26 PM. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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