Bitcoin

Bearish

Archived analysis from Sep 24, 2026, 1:35 PM

Key insight

$87,395 rejected — record $999M ETF inflow failed to hold gains; BTC now trades below $85K, threatening a retest of the $80,000 round-number support.

Faded $6,000 off the $87,395 Sep 23 ETF-driven high; Fed rate-hike odds at 66% cap upside and BTC sits below the $85,000 psychological level.

Main risk

Fed 25 bps rate hike — Sep/Oct FOMC

CME FedWatch puts 66% probability on a 25 bps hike; confirmed hike would reprice risk assets and pressure BTC below $80,000.

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