EUR/USD

Key insight

The July 23 ECB decision and July 29 Fed meeting are the two binary events that will determine whether EUR/USD breaks out of its 1.1380–1.1480 bear flag or resumes its descent toward 1.1265; the next 10 days are decisive.

EUR/USD is pinned at the critical 1.1400–1.1420 range pivot — a confluence of the 50-day MA and the June 19 swing low support — with neither the ECB (88% priced to hold at 2.25% on July 23) nor the Fed (Warsh signalling no imminent pivot) offering a clear directional catalyst.

Main risk

Middle East Geopolitical Escalation / Oil Price Spike

Renewed US strikes on Iranian targets and the Strait of Hormuz blockade have reignited oil prices toward $81.70, threatening to re-accelerate global inflation and force both the Fed and ECB into a more hawkish stance — a stagflationary drag that historically weighs on EUR/USD.