EUR/USD

Key insight

The Fed's divided vote (3 dissenters backing a hike) paradoxically crushed the dollar by eliminating certainty on a September hike, while the ECB's hawkish case just got stronger — this policy divergence shift is the most powerful near-term tailwind for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD has broken above the key 1.1500 round-number resistance — its strongest level since June 2026 — driven by a dovish Fed hold (9-3 vote) and a blowout Eurozone Q2 GDP beat of +0.4% vs +0.2% forecast, reinforcing ECB rate hike expectations for September.

Main risk

Fed September hike re-pricing

If upcoming US PCE or NFP data print hot, markets could rapidly re-price a September Fed hike back in, collapsing the rate-differential trade and sending EUR/USD back toward the 1.1350–1.1380 prior resistance-turned-support zone.