EUR/USD

Key insight

The Fed's dovish-leaning hold (closest decision in years, September hike now in doubt) has given EUR/USD a short-term lift to 1.1473–1.1475, but the rate differential — Fed at 3.75% vs. ECB at 2.25% — still structurally favours the dollar on any risk-off re-escalation in the Middle East or a hot US GDP print today.

EUR/USD is hovering near the key 1.1475 mid-July swing high resistance after a Fed hold-driven spike, but remains structurally below both the EMA65 and EMA200 with the 2026 high of 1.1915 far overhead, leaving the pair in a corrective range rather than a trend.

Main risk

US Q2 GDP and Middle East Re-escalation Today

Today's US Q2 GDP release (July 30) and any renewed Iran-related tensions could immediately reverse the post-FOMC EUR/USD rally, pushing the pair back below 1.1400 and targeting the June low at 1.1324.