EUR/USD

Key insight

The Fed's 9-3 hold was dovish relative to pricing, sparking an EUR/USD rally, but with Chair Warsh emphasising above-target inflation and three hawkish dissenters, the case for sustained USD weakness remains unconvincing — the pair is trapped in a 1.1380–1.1550 no-man's-land.

EUR/USD is consolidating just above the 1.1450 weekly high after the Fed's dovish-leaning hold, but three dissenting votes for a hike and persistent US inflation keep the pair capped below the 1.1550 July swing high.

Main risk

Fed hawkish dissent re-accelerates September hike expectations

If upcoming US data (NFP, CPI) prints hot, the three-dissenter vote could rapidly rebuild September hike pricing, forcing EUR/USD back below the 1.1380 structural support zone.