EUR/USD

Key insight

Today's FOMC meeting (29 July) is the single most important near-term catalyst: with the Fed holding at 3.75% and US inflation running at 3.5% vs. eurozone 2.8%, any hawkish signal from Powell will re-energise USD bulls and cap EUR/USD below the 1.1500 psychological barrier.

EUR/USD trades at 1.1451, pinned just below the key 1.1480 mid-July swing high and the EMA200, with direction hinging entirely on the FOMC rate decision due today — any hawkish hold could quickly flush the pair back below 1.1380.

Main risk

FOMC Rate Decision – 29 July 2026

If the Fed signals no near-term cuts and reaffirms the 3.75% hold with an upward inflation bias, EUR/USD risks a swift rejection from 1.1451 back toward the 1.1280 key support and potentially the 1.1080 deep bear target.