EUR/USD

Bearish

Archived analysis from Jul 29, 2026, 1:23 PM

Key insight

Today's FOMC decision is the single biggest near-term catalyst: a hawkish hold or delayed cut signal from the Fed — compounded by today's sharp +6.1% oil surge reigniting inflation concerns — could push EUR/USD through key support at 1.1280 and open the path to 1.1080.

EUR/USD is trading below both the EMA65 and EMA200 after pulling back from the 2026 high of 1.1915, and a +6.1% oil spike today risks reigniting inflation fears that reinforce USD safe-haven demand ahead of the FOMC decision.

Main risk

FOMC July 29 Rate Decision & Press Conference

The Fed holds at 3.75% while US inflation runs at 3.5% vs. eurozone 2.8% — any signal of a prolonged pause or fewer 2026 cuts could deliver a sharp USD rally and break EUR/USD below 1.1280 support.

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