EUR/USD

Bearish

Archived analysis from Jul 29, 2026, 5:38 AM

Key insight

Today's FOMC decision (29 July) is the single most important catalyst — any hawkish hold or pushback on near-term cuts by Powell will reinforce the rate differential and push EUR/USD below the 1.1280 structural support, opening the door to 1.1080.

EUR/USD has pulled back over 5 big figures from the 2026 high of 1.1915 and is trading below the EMA65 and EMA200, with the Fed holding at 3.75% vs. ECB at 2.40% maintaining a bearish interest rate differential for the euro.

Main risk

FOMC Rate Decision – 29 July 2026

The Fed is expected to hold at 3.75% today; if Powell signals a prolonged pause or rules out a September cut, EUR/USD risks a swift drop below 1.1280, targeting 1.1080.

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