EUR/USD

Key insight

The FOMC decision on 29 July is the single biggest near-term catalyst — a hawkish hold or rate hike signal from the Fed would likely flush EUR/USD below the critical 1.1280 structural support and open a run toward 1.1080.

EUR/USD has pulled back sharply from the 2026 high of 1.1915 and is trading below both the EMA65 and EMA200, with the pair now testing the key 1.1400 round-number support after a failed recovery attempt.

Main risk

FOMC Rate Decision — 29 July 2026

The Fed holds at 3.75% while Yardeni Research warns the Fed may need to raise rates three more times to tame persistent US inflation at 3.5%, which would widen the US-Eurozone rate differential further and crush EUR/USD below 1.1280.