EUR/USD

Key insight

The FOMC decision on 29 July is the single most important near-term catalyst — a hawkish hold or signal of further hikes (Yardeni warns of three more) would accelerate the EUR/USD slide toward the key 1.1280 break level.

EUR/USD has pulled back over 5 big figures from its 2026 high of 1.1915 and is now trading below both the EMA65 and EMA200 at 1.1367, with the Fed holding at 3.75% vs the ECB at 2.40% maintaining a structurally bearish rate differential for the euro.

Main risk

FOMC Decision – 29 July 2026

The Fed holds at 3.75% against the ECB's 2.40%; any hawkish signal or rate hike surprise on 29 July would widen the rate differential sharply and push EUR/USD through critical support at 1.1280.