EUR/USD

Key insight

The ECB signaled a likely September rate hike, but this is already priced in; the real risk is that US-Iran geopolitical re-escalation reignites oil prices and dollar safe-haven demand, pushing EUR/USD through the key 1.1362 July low toward 1.1200.

EUR/USD is trading just above July's structural low at 1.1362 — a level that has held by a whisker for two consecutive weeks — with the pair rejected at the stubborn 1.1430 resistance and the broader trend showing four down-sessions out of five last week.

Main risk

FOMC Meeting Decision – This Week

Any hawkish signal from the Fed on Wednesday — whether a rate hold with a tightening bias or pushback on near-term cut expectations — would re-ignite USD strength and threaten the 1.1362 July low support.