EUR/USD

Key insight

The single most important event this week is the 29 July FOMC decision — any hawkish hold or rate hike signal from the Fed will confirm the bearish EUR/USD structure and likely break the pair below the critical 1.1280 support.

EUR/USD is trading below the key 1.1400 psychological level and both the EMA65 and EMA200, having pulled back sharply from the 2026 high of 1.1915, with the DXY near 101.10 supported by US-Iran geopolitical safe-haven flows and sticky US inflation at 3.5%.

Main risk

FOMC Meeting – 29 July 2026

A hawkish Fed hold or signal of renewed tightening at the 29 July FOMC meeting would widen the US-EU rate differential (Fed at 3.75% vs ECB at 2.25–2.40%) and drive EUR/USD below the 1.1280 support toward 1.1080.