EUR/USD

Key insight

The July 23 ECB decision and July 29 FOMC meeting are the two binary catalysts that will determine whether EUR/USD breaks the bear flag lower toward 1.1300 or reclaims 1.1500+, making this a week to manage risk rather than add directional exposure.

EUR/USD at 1.1443 is pinned between bear-flag resistance at 1.1475–1.1480 and key structural support at 1.1380, with neither the ECB (88% priced to hold on July 23) nor the Fed (Warsh resisting pivot) providing the clear policy divergence needed to break the range.

Main risk

ECB Hold + Middle East Oil Shock Stagflation

If the ECB holds on July 23 as widely expected (88% probability) while surging oil prices from US strikes on Iran re-ignite inflation fears, the euro loses its hawkish premium and the pair risks breaking the bear-flag support at 1.1380 toward 1.1300.