EUR/USD

Key insight

The 29 July Fed decision is the single most important catalyst this week — a hawkish hold or any signal of further rate hikes (Yardeni warns of three more) would strengthen the dollar and push EUR/USD through the critical 1.1280 support, opening a run toward 1.1080.

EUR/USD has pulled back sharply from the 2026 high of 1.1915 and is now consolidating just below the 1.1400 round number, with the pair trading beneath both the EMA65 and EMA200 on the daily chart, confirming a bearish regime shift.

Main risk

29 July FOMC Decision — Hawkish Surprise

If the Fed signals a rate hike path resumption at the 29 July meeting — consistent with Yardeni Research's call for three more hikes to combat 3.5% US CPI — EUR/USD could break decisively below 1.1280 and accelerate toward 1.1080.