EUR/USD

Key insight

The FOMC decision on 29 July is the single most pivotal catalyst this week — a hold with hawkish guidance would likely crack the 1.1400 floor and open a direct path to 1.1280, while any dovish pivot signal could stage a sharp relief rally toward 1.1550.

EUR/USD is trading near the critical 1.1400 round-number support — below both EMA65 and EMA200 — having pulled back sharply from the 2026 high of 1.1915, with the Fed/ECB rate differential (Fed at 3.75% vs ECB at 2.40%) and US-Iran geopolitical safe-haven demand keeping persistent downward pressure on the pair.

Main risk

FOMC Decision – 29 July 2026

A Fed hold at 3.75% with hawkish forward guidance on still-elevated US inflation (3.5%) could push EUR/USD decisively below the 1.1400 support level and toward the key structural floor at 1.1280.