EUR/USD
BearishArchived analysis from Sep 21, 2026, 8:29 PM
Key insight
1.1500 round number rejected intraday — pair now trades 1.1465, below prior swing resistance; a daily close under 1.1450 opens a retest of the 1.1380 Fibonacci 38.2% retracement.
Fades from 1.1500 round number with USD firming — USD/JPY +0.4% to 157.4 and GBP/USD -0.2% confirm broad dollar bid; EUR/USD prints 1.1465, below the key 1.1500 figure.
Main risk
Surprise ECB dovish pivot
ECB guidance shift toward faster cuts would collapse EUR rate support and accelerate a move below 1.1380 38.2% Fib.
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