EUR/USD
NeutralArchived analysis from Sep 21, 2026, 1:30 PM
Key insight
1.1500 capping gains — break and hold above triggers a run at 1.1600 (2025 swing high). Failure to clear sends price back to 1.1350 (50-day MA). Direction decided by next Fed/ECB guidance shift.
Holds 1.1484 with near-zero 24h move — pair is coiling below the 1.1500 round-number resistance after a multi-month dollar-weakening trend stalls ahead of key central bank catalysts.
Main risk
Fed policy pivot re-assessment
Resurging USD demand on any Fed hawkish signal crushes the pair below 1.1400 50-day MA, invalidating the bullish structure built since Q1 2026.
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