EUR/USD
BearishArchived analysis from Jul 23, 2026, 8:36 PM
Key insight
Today's ECB press conference confirmed a hold at 2.25% with a wait-and-see stance, removing the near-term Euro catalyst while the Fed holds at 3.75% — the interest rate differential keeps structural pressure on the EUR/USD downside.
EUR/USD has retreated from its 2026 high of 1.1915 and is trading below the EMA65 and EMA200 at ~1.1450, with BofA targeting 1.12 by end-Q3 on Fed-ECB rate divergence and a hawkish dollar bid on geopolitical oil risk.
Main risk
Trump Permanent Tariff Reimposition
The Trump administration is expected as soon as this week to introduce permanent new tariffs replacing temporary penalties, a direct USD-positive shock that could accelerate the break below the 1.1325 June low.
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