EUR/USD
BearishArchived analysis from Jul 23, 2026, 1:22 PM
Key insight
The ECB rate hold today (widely priced in) removes the euro's last near-term catalyst, leaving the pair exposed to renewed USD strength driven by incoming US tariff escalation on 60+ trading partners effective August 1.
EUR/USD has failed to reclaim the 200-period SMA at 1.1480–1.1485 and is now fading below stubborn resistance at 1.1430, with MACD sub-zero and RSI at ~40 confirming waning bullish momentum on the day of the ECB hold decision.
Main risk
ECB post-decision guidance hawkish surprise
If ECB President Lagarde signals fewer future cuts than expected or flags upside inflation risks, EUR/USD could spike sharply back above 1.1430 resistance and challenge 1.1480.
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