EUR/USD

Key insight

1.1600 is the fulcrum: NFP-driven 40-pip drop was fully retraced, but ECB and US CPI this week set the next directional break. Neither side has conviction above 1.1650 or below 1.1560.

1.1600 holding as pivot — NFP beat (162K vs 53K est.) capped upside; ECB rate decision this week limits dollar follow-through. Pair locked between 1.1580 and 1.1650.

Main risk

ECB Rate Decision + US CPI Collision

ECB meeting this week alongside US CPI creates a two-sided vol event; a hawkish Fed pivot signal sends pair through 1.1560 support.