EUR/USD

Neutral

Archived analysis from Sep 8, 2026, 1:31 PM

Key insight

1.1650 rejected Monday after Eurozone data spike — pair pinned between ECB decision Thu and US CPI; break either side determines next 100-pip leg.

1.1600 holding as pivot after NFP beat (162K vs 53K est.) — ECB rate decision Thu caps euro upside; Fed hike odds ~60% cap any USD selloff.

Main risk

Fed rate hike Sep — ~60% probability

US CPI this week could cement Sep Fed hike; would blast USD through 1.1550 support and invalidate euro recovery.

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