EUR/USD
NeutralArchived analysis from Sep 7, 2026, 1:30 PM
Key insight
1.1630 seller zone caps upside — rejection here twice this week; ECB Sep 10 decision is the next binary catalyst that resolves direction toward 1.1700 or 1.1550.
1.1626 trapped between Aug jobs beat (NFP +162k vs 56k est.) lifting USD and ECB hike priced Sep 10 — two opposing forces holding EUR/USD at a short-term equilibrium near 1.16.
Main risk
Fed rate hike — Sep FOMC decision
60% market probability of Fed hike this month; confirmation crushes EUR/USD toward 1.1480 200-day MA zone.
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