EUR/USD
NeutralArchived analysis from Jul 23, 2026, 5:23 AM
Key insight
The pair has pulled back over 400 pips from the 2026 high of 1.1915 and is stalling below key moving average resistance, with the ECB's July hold decision and surging oil prices (up 1.5% today) capping any euro recovery rally.
EUR/USD is pinned in a tight 1.1400–1.1480 consolidation band, trading just above the 200-period MA at 1.1434, as the ECB holds rates at 2.25% and the Fed's Kevin Warsh signals no imminent cuts with inflation still "too high".
Main risk
Oil price surge reigniting US inflation fears
Oil has surged to $87.8 today (+1.5%), driven by Middle East / Strait of Hormuz tensions, which could prompt a more hawkish Fed stance from Chair Warsh and send the USD higher, dragging EUR/USD back toward the 1.1280 support.
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