EUR/USD
BearishArchived analysis from Sep 4, 2026, 8:34 PM
Key insight
1.1613 rejection off 1.1700 round-number resistance signals near-term dollar recovery; hold below 1.1650 keeps bears in control targeting 1.1480 Fibonacci 38.2% of 2025 rally.
Fades from 1.1700 round-number resistance; USD firms as USD/JPY rises to 156.3, pressing EUR/USD back toward 1.1550 prior consolidation floor.
Main risk
Hawkish Fed / Soft ECB divergence
Fed holding rates elevated while ECB signals easing widens rate gap, capping EUR/USD rallies at 1.1700 and pulling toward 1.1400.
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