EUR/USD
BearishArchived analysis from Aug 26, 2026, 1:47 PM
Key insight
1.1656 tests the 10-day MA — a daily close below 1.1640 opens a retest of the 1.1550 June consolidation base. Hold above 1.1640 keeps the broader uptrend intact toward 1.1800.
Pulls back to 1.1656 from the 1.17 handle — USD firms broadly as USD/JPY holds 159.3 and GBP/USD slips 0.3%, pointing to broad dollar demand eroding the EUR's 2026 gains.
Main risk
Fed higher-for-longer policy pivot
Renewed Fed hawkishness could drive DXY above 101, pushing EURUSD back below 1.1500 and negating the 2026 EUR recovery.
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