EUR/USD

Key insight

The ECB's rate decision on 22 July is the pivotal catalyst: a hawkish hold with explicit guidance for a September hike could push EUR/USD above 1.1480, but surging oil above $86/bbl is reigniting US inflation fears that keep the Fed restrictive and the dollar bid.

EUR/USD is pinned in a tight 1.1400–1.1480 range ahead of today's ECB decision, with the pair capped below the key 1.1480 resistance and unable to sustain a breakout despite softer US CPI prints.

Main risk

Oil spike reigniting Fed hawkishness

Crude oil at $86.9/bbl (+3.1% today) risks reversing the soft US CPI narrative, with Fed Chair Warsh already on record that one or two good inflation prints are insufficient to declare victory — a hawkish re-acceleration would crush EUR/USD below 1.1380.