EUR/USD

Neutral

Archived analysis from Jul 22, 2026, 5:21 AM

Key insight

The pair has collapsed from the 2026 high of 1.1915 and now trades below its EMA65 and EMA200 — the burden of proof sits firmly with euro bulls to reclaim 1.1480 before any recovery thesis is credible.

EUR/USD is pinned in a tight 1.1400–1.1480 consolidation range, trapped between a Fed holding at 3.75% with a hawkish bias and an ECB at 2.40% with a post-hike pause, leaving neither side with a decisive catalyst.

Main risk

Rising oil prices reigniting US inflation fears

WTI crude at $85.2 (+1.1% today) amid Middle East/Strait of Hormuz tensions risks keeping US CPI elevated, reinforcing the Fed's 'higher for longer' stance and pushing EUR/USD back below the 1.1400 pivotal support.

With Pro

Levels, scenarios & outlook are only available in the app — for all analyses, including archived ones.

Get the app→

Go to the current EUR/USD analysis →