EUR/USD
BullishArchived analysis from Aug 19, 2026, 3:40 AM
Key insight
1.16 reclaimed and held; next resistance at 2023 high of 1.1275 already cleared — eyes on 1.1700 round number. USD weakness via softer real yields drives EUR bid; ECB holding rates while Fed pivots narrows the differential.
Holds 1.1583 spot with daily close near 1.16 — EUR grinding higher as USD softens on Fed rate-cut expectations and a structurally weaker DXY below the 102 pivot.
Main risk
USD Reversal on Hawkish Fed Surprise
Fed pivot repriced sharply — DXY reclaims 103 and EUR/USD breaks below 1.1400 38.2% Fib, invalidating the bull structure.
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